Nathan MacKinnon Deserves to Win First Hart Trophy

The Hart Trophy is an annual award given “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team.” The winner is selected in a poll of the members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association at the end of the regular season. This will be Nathan MacKinnon’s fourth time being a finalist for the trophy, and while it won’t be an easy vote, here’s why he’s going to win either the Hart Trophy, the Ted Lindsay Award, or both as the NHL’s most valuable player for the first time in his career. He will achieve this feat even though he’s competing against one of the greatest fields of candidates the league has ever seen.

A Record-Breaking Season 

For MacKinnon, 2023-24 was a season to remember as he broke records across the board, not only when it comes to personal stats but franchise and NHL records too. In 82 games, he set career highs of 51 goals and 89 assists for 140 points. His season production was fueled by the many-point streaks he accumulated throughout the season, as he put up at least one point in a league-leading 69 games. These streaks included the record-setting home-point streak that saw him score at least one point on home ice for 35 straight games, the second-longest home-point streak in history behind Wayne Gretzky’s 40 during the 1988-89 season. He became the first player to have two-point streaks of 19-plus games, whether on the road or at home in the same season.

In the franchise section, MacKinnon set numerous Avalanche single-season records, including most points (140), Goals Created (51.1), Shots (405), Adjusted Assists (87), Adjusted Points (138), Adjusted Goals Created (51.6), Total Goals On-Ice For (187), Expected plus/minus (plus-25.1), Offensive Point Shares (13.1), and Point Shares (16.0). He also jumped up the ladder in numerous franchise career records, including third in assists and fourth in points. MacKinnon was a man on a mission offensively when it comes to advanced stats, as he led the entire team in Expected Goals (37.3), most penalty minutes drawn (66), Goals Above Expected (13.7), Points Per 60 Minutes (4.49), Medium Danger Expected Goals (14.91), Low Danger Expected Goals (11.8), and On-Ice Expected Goals % (64.7%). The team was playing their best when he was on the ice, and that shows from the records he broke and the statistics.

Leading Statistics Within the Finalists 

Competing with Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov and Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid, MacKinnon has held more than his share regarding putting up points. He can capitalize on what he is given or sees on the ice and do more offensively with it. MacKinnon leads the three in goals, tied for first in plus/minus (plus-35), Even Strength Goals (41), Even Strength Points (92), Overtime Goals (2), Game Winning Goals (9), Shots On Goal (405), Time On Ice per Game Played (22:49). MacKinnon was a key contributor like the other three nominees, but who wins all depends on what the voters agree on what is more impactful to the team.

He didn’t put up over 100 assists like McDavid and Kucherov but matched it with his own for more than 50 goals, being one of only four in the season to finish with over 50. The same can be seen with the argument for the total number of points and the “power play merchant” conversation that comes with the Art Ross Trophy, with MacKinnon finishing with four fewer points than Kucherov cause he had more points on the power play. 

Suppose we were to make the argument that 5-on-5 or even-strength production matters most. In that case, MacKinnon leads the three in goals (36), points (79), Goals Above Expected (13.9) (closest is Kucherov at 4.1), Expected Goals per 60 Minutes (0.93), Medium and Low Danger Expected Goals, On-Ice Goal Differential (35), and Created Expected Goals (22.3). There is the argument for other finalists who are ahead of MacKinnon in other categories. It all comes down to what the voters saw on the ice, how they perceive the stats in front of them, and how much stock they put into them when deciding who the MVP is.

MacKinnon’s Legacy With the Award

Three seasons ago, the Avalanche experienced another devastating second-round playoff exit at the hands of the Vegas Golden Knights and MacKinnon was unsatisfied with the team’s lack of success. In a famous post-game interview, MacKinnon declared his motivation to push for even greater accomplishments in the future while being in the league for quite some time, saying “I’m going into my ninth year next year and haven’t won s---.” That is where MacKinnon’s legacy now ventures towards. Having secured his first and hopefully many more Stanley Cups, he now looks to add another piece of hardware to his vast collection. Though as much of an accomplishment as it could be to add a prestigious award like the Hart, he knows what’s more important to him and the team.

“I’m not even thinking about that. I’m so invested in this playoff run.”

Reaction to being a Hart Trophy Finalists

It’s the playoffs, and that award is handed out to the best regular season player, not the best playoff performer; we have the Conn Smythe Trophy for that. His comment shows where his head is and what he strives for every season he plays. Personal achievements are significant and highlight the skill and talent one brings to the ice every , but for MacKinnon, more rings on his fingers mean a lot more than a personal achievement that happened so long ago.