Deni Avdija is Primed for a Breakout Year

When the Wizards drafted Deni Avdija ninth overall in the 2020 NBA Draft, the knee-jerk reaction from fans was a mixed bag. Many were perplexed why the organization had passed on Tyrese Haliburton when there was a glaring hole at the point guard spot. Avdija’s selection, however, made sense as the league transitioned into an era where versatile, ball-handling forwards became the league’s premier players. The Israeli-Serbian forward has had ups and downs. Heading into his fourth season in the league, Avdija is set up for a breakout season.

Deni Avdija is Primed for a Breakout Year

Greater Opportunities for Deni Avdija

In 2020, Avdija joined a roster that was flush with more experienced forwards. In a rotation of Davis Bertans, Troy Brown Jr., and the previous year’s lottery pick, Rui Hachimura, there was little room for Avdija to break out as a rookie. Now, all of these forwards have moved on from the roster. In a show of faith in Avdija’s development, the Wizards dealt away Hachimura to the Los Angeles Lakers last winter. This move cleared the path for Avdija to claim a greater role within the team. He showed this in the final 30 games of the season, posting an uptick in nearly every statistical category.

Cracking the Rotation

Per ESPN, Avdija is projected to be the Wizards sixth man this season. However, there will likely be an opportunity for him to move into the starting five. Washington fields an undersized backcourt of Tyus Jones and Jordan Poole, both under six-foot-five. Corey Kispert may start at the small forward spot. However, Avdija should be pushing hard to take this spot for himself. Kispert is an excellent shooter and an invaluable member of the Wizards team, but at six-foot-seven, starting him would leave the Wizards undersized across three positions. Avdija remains one of the only prototypical-sized forwards on the roster. At six-foot-nine and 210 pounds, he provides a physical profile that the Wizards will need to prevent from hemorrhaging points on a nightly basis. By slotting Avdija into the starting lineup, the Wizards should also unlock his strengths on the other side of the ball.

On Court Fit

Avdija is the Wizard’s most consistent defender. The age-old maxim is “defense is all about effort, not talent,” and no one on the roster exemplifies this like Avdija. Capable of guarding ball handlers and most big men, he moves his feet well and rarely quits on plays. There are not a lot of question marks about Avidja’s defensive credentials, and most metrics show him to be a defensive stalwart. It is on the other side of the ball that will determine if he has a breakout season.

Avdija is not a good shooter from behind the arc. He has posted a below-league-average percentage so far in his career. Figuring out how to be a capable shooter will determine the rest of his career trajectory. However, on the Wizard’s current roster, there are much more capable shooters surrounding him than last season. New acquisitions Jones and Poole jump to mind as being two deadeyes from distance. Playing with more floor spacers should open driving lanes for Avdija to get to the basket with greater efficiency.

The forgotten aspect of Avdija’s game is that he is surprisingly capable with the ball in his hands. The forward has a good handle and a strong understanding of the game. Playing within a more dynamic system will greatly benefit this aspect of his game. Head coach Wes Unseld Jr. laid out his plans to play faster this season, emphasizing players making on-the-fly reads. If the coach and team implement this, Wizards fans should salivate at the thought of Avdija charging down the court on a fastbreak with Poole, Kuzma, and others trailing alongside him.

Entering a Contract Year

Looming over this entire season is the expiration of Avdija’s rookie contract. It is a tale as old as time in sports. The young player enters his contract year and turns a corner, prompting the team to pay him. It is a positive sign for Avdija that his contract year coincides with his expanded role with the team. Likewise, the Wizards front office should be working to tie down Avdija before next summer. The forward provides defensive versatility with great size and feel for the game while not requiring major touches on the offensive end. If Avdija has the breakout season that many fans hope he will, the Wizards’ long road to rebuilding will feel considerably shorter.